养老金制度变革的福利损益与再分配研究

本文借鉴Heckman和Raj分析框架，结合苏州工业园区金保工程管理数据，构建了养老金制度由完全积累制向部分积累制变革的反事实微观评估模型。鉴于参保职工异质性，本文采用分位数分析，用“替代率增幅分布”代替“平均替代率增幅”，评估制度变革的个体福利损益；又引入均值回归以及分位数回归，构建“替代率增幅”与“工资”等影响因素的经济结构模型，估计Raj充分信息评估指标，评估制度变革的收入再分配效应。本文在方法上整合了精算模型和经济结构模型，拓展了传统的反事实政策评估方法；在实务上为政府充分利用金保工程管理数据、辅助决策社会保障提供了一种范式。

Research on Welfare Loss and Income Redistribution of Pension System Reform

Based on analysis framework for Heckman and Raj, this paper builds a counterfactual microscopic evaluation model of pension system reformation, using the administrative data from Suzhou Industrial Park. Because of the heterogeneity, the study introduces quantile method to evaluate pension reform about welfare, using the wage distribution instead of average wage. This study constructs mean regression and quantile regression model to estimate the sufficient evaluation indicator to assess the redistribution of income effect. The evaluation method integrates actuarial model with economic structure model and expands the traditional counterfactual evaluation methods. The study also provides a paradigm that a government how to make a decision about social security based on administrative data in practice.