出口贸易与省域TFP空间维度分析

作为衡量一国科技进步的重要指标,全要素生产率的高低决定着一国生产率水平的先进与落后。在不断深化改革开放的过程中,如何利用开放倒逼我国技术水平的提高成为一项较为紧迫的任务。为此,我们运用面板DEA-Malmquist指数法可以测算出2002—2011年我国29个省份(含自治区、直辖市)全要素生产率,并在此基础上建立空间面板数据模型(SPDM),实证分析出口贸易、基础设施等对我国省域全要素生产率及其空间溢出效应的影响。经研究发现,我国省域全要素生产率存在较为明显的空间自相关性,即出口贸易、基础设施等经济活动通过影响本省TFP,并通过空间溢出效应进一步将其作用传递和迭加到邻近省域全要素生产率上,基础设施对我国省域全要素存在较为显著的负向关系,出口依存度、出口贸易及FDI对我国省域全要素生产率具有显著的推动作用。

The Analysis of Export Trade and the Provincial TFP from Space Dimensions

As an important index to measure a country＇ s technology progress, total factor productivi- ty determines a country＇ s productivity level. In the process of the deepening of reform and opening up, how to use the opening up to improve China＇ s technological level has become a more pressing task. This paper uses panel DEA malmquist index method measures out of the 29 provinces＇ （ including autonomous regions and municipalities） domain TFP index and its components. Based on this analysis, the author es- tablishes the spatial panel data model （SPDM） in order to analyze the impacts of different variables on the provincial TFP from the empirical perspective. The results show that： Overall, there exists spatial au- tocorrelation in Provincial TFP obviously, the provinces＇ TFP will be affected by the neighboring prov- inces ones. The infrastructure has a significant negative impact on provincial TFP, the export dependence, export trade and FDI have a significant positive relationship with the provinces＇ TFP.