我国农村土地抛荒的关键因素研究

根据全国25个省（市）1985—2009年的面板数据,实证分析几个关键因素对农村土地抛荒（种粮补贴和粮食价格）的影响。结果表明：种粮补贴对农村土地抛荒的发生概率没有显著性影响,增加种粮补贴并未减少农村土地抛荒。原因在于种粮补贴机制不健全,政府应改变种粮补贴政策的具体执行方式,使之成为种粮的激励因素。粮食价格对农村土地抛荒的发生概率具有显著性影响,提高粮食价格能减少农村土地抛荒,但作用有限,其原因一是第一产业收入低于工资性收入,不再成为农户最重要的收入来源;二是粮食市场体系不完善。因此,政府应打破粮食市场垄断局面,粮食收购企业应建立粮食质量信息甄选机制,消除信息不对称和逆向选择,促进粮食收购企业和粮农之间的良性循环。

Abandoned Agriculture Land and the Key Factors in China's Countryside

Based on panel data about 25 provinces from 1985 to 2008,positive analysis shows the key factors（food subsidies and food prices） about abandoned agriculture land in China＇s countryside.It shows that food subsidies cast little significant influence on the possibility of revival of agriculture abandoned land,and increase of the subsidies can not reduce the area of abandoned agriculture land.The reason may be that institution of food subsidies is not perfect.So government should adjust implementation tools of the policy to transform it into a stimulus for reducing abandoned land areas.Food prices have a significant influence on the possibility of appearance of abandoned agri-lands.Although increasing food prices can diminish abandoned land,the effect is limited.For one thing,income from food is not the main income source for many farmers;for another,food market is not perfect.Therefore,government should eradicate the monopoly and establish a mechanism to remove the dissymmetry and adverse selection in order to develop a virtuous circle between buyers and sellers.