双重政策目标下的货币政策传导机制研究

运用误差修正模型和协整检验对我国货币政策传导机制和货币政策有效性问题进行实证研究。结果表明,在二元政策目标框架下,货币供给具有较强的外生性,中央银行对通货膨胀的厌恶性正逐渐超过对经济增长的偏好性；相对于信贷渠道而言,货币渠道对货币政策传导的贡献度不高,货币政策主要通过信货渠道来影响总需求。

STUDY ON THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICIES UNDER DOUBLE FINAL GOALS

Co-integration analysis and the vector error correction model approach are used to analyze the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of the monetary policies in China since 1998.This empirical test reveals that monetary supply is an exogenous variable and that the central bank of the country now considers price stability instead of output growth as the supreme final goal.As compared with the credit channel,which is the crocial factor in the transmissiun mechanisms of monetary policies,the money channel contributes rela- tively little.The asset price channel is found to be distorted to some extent because of incomplete financial liberalization and defects in the financial strocture of China.The monetary policies influence demand and supply mainly through the credit channel.