基本养老保险覆盖面扩展决定因素实证研究

扩大基本养老保险覆盖面是我国社会保障制度改革的优先目标之一。本文通过对19982003年分省数据的实证分析，发现各省之间的基本养老保险覆盖面的差异，主要是由它们的经济发展水平和市场化程度这两个宏观经济因素与基本养老金给付标准和财政对社会保障补助支出这两个政策因素共同决定的。基于这些发现，考虑到我国经济持续发展和市场化改革深化的趋势，我们对我国社会保障事业的发展持谨慎乐观的态度，并认为在目前，“低水平、高覆盖”仍然是一个符合国情、必须坚持的合理政策选择，地方政府应当在财力许可的范围内，增加对社会保障事业的财政投入。

The Determinants of the Expansion of the Coverage of the Basic Pension Program

A priority objective of the social security reform in China is to expand the coverage of the basic pension program. Utilizing OLS models with provincial data from 1998 to 2003， we found that two macro level economic factors （i.e.， degrees of economic development and market regulation of the economy） and two policy factors （i.e.， basic security benefit level and fiscal support for security supplement） were the major determinants of the variation of the coverage rates among provinces. Based on these findings and the consideration of the continuous economic development as well as the intensification of market economy in China， we espouse a cautious but optimistic belief in the constant growth of our social security. We insist that， at present， “low payments with wide coverage” be a reasonable policy choice that must be adhered to as it fits the situation of our country. Local governments should increase financial support for social security， whenever financially affordable.