复杂适应系统理论对危机时期民众心态的分析与模拟 --重大突发事件应对措施研究

通过对危机状态下社会行为、心态状况方面的考察、分析和模拟,以复杂适应系统的观点分析了SARS爆发至消亡的一个月时间内,民众在行为、情绪、压力等方面的变化及特征.以网络调查得到的数据为基础,利用统计分析方法对反映民众行为、心态的各项变量间的相互关联性进行了深入分析,并根据统计分析得到的定量模型,通过设定微观主体的行为规范,建立了基于主体的计算机模型.在该模型上,通过模拟分析一些可控因素对于稳定民众情绪、缓解社会压力的效果,发现了如民众对政府的信任程度、对防治手段的了解程度等影响比较突出的关键因素,为危机条件下制定及时有效的应对措施提供了一定的参考.

Analysis and Simulation on Mass Psychology by CAS Theory --Research on policies to respond to critical events

In the research on socio-psychological presentiment system, the paper focuses on the study of the social behavior and psychology. We analyzed the characteristic of social behavior, emotion and pressure during the period of SARS based on Complexity Adaptive System (CAS) theory. Based on the data from investigation on internet, we analyzed the correlations between variables that could reflect the socio-psychology status through statistics method. We got the quantificational equations, which could be regarded as the rules of the agent. After that, we built the model on computer and simulated the real status by analyzing some controllable factors on stablization of motion stress and relief of pressue. Then we studied some key factors such as people's trust in the government, the acquaintance of prevention and cure means, etc. in order to give some suggestions on the policy replying to crisis event.