中国农业出口贸易与环境污染关系的实证研究

在估算中国农业环境污染排放量的基础上,运用Johansen协整分析、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应分析对1995-2010年中国农业出口贸易总额和农业环境污染之间的长期变化关系进行实证分析.结果表明:从长期来看,中国农业贸易出口额和农业环境污染之问是正向的关系,且农业出口贸易规模的变化是导致农业环境污染排放量变化的原因.脉冲响应分析则进一步从动态的角度验证了农业出口贸易规模对农业环境污染的正向影响程度及滞后趋势.并在实证分析的基础上提出了优化农业出口贸易结构,健全、完善与农业贸易有关的环境规制政策以及逐步推进农业环境成本内部化等建议.

Empirical study on the relationship between agricultural export trade and environmental pollution in China

According to the estimation of agricultural environmental pollution emissions,the methods of Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test and impulse response are applied to conduct an empirical analysis of long-term dynamic relationship between agricultural export trade amount and agriculture environmental pollution in China from 1995 to 2010.The results show that in the long term the relationship is positive and the size of agricultural export trade is the reason of agricultural environmental pollution emissions.Meanwhile the impulse response analysis verifies the degree of positive impact and lagging trend from the dynamic perspective.Accordingly it is proposed to optimize the trade structure of agricultural exports,improve the relevant environmental regulatory policy,and gradually advance internalization of agriculture environmental costs.