新型城镇化背景下"农转居"的影响因素分析及公共政策

农转居作为新型城镇化背景下人口演变的必然趋势,已成为推进人口城镇化的重要举措.通过对南昌市青山湖区、新建区的城乡结合部和若干农民工集中求职点进行调研,对调研数据进行整理分析并结合社会学、人口学等领域专家的咨询意见初步推断出影响农转居实现的因素,主要来自经济、教育、心理及社会四个方面.为进一步探究这四方面因素对农转居实现的影响程度如何,基于调研的原始数据,采用Logistic回归模型对农转居的影响因素进行回归分析,发现月均收入、教育水平及社保覆盖情况对农转居的实现呈现正向促进作用,而回家次数则与农转居的实现概率呈反向关系,其中月均收入和社保覆盖情况对农转居实现的影响程度最大.最后通过对影响因素的研究成果,有针对性地提出公共政策,帮助农民工顺利实现农转居.

The analysis to influence factors and public policyof "farmers to citizens" under the background of new urbanization

Farmers to citizens as a inevitable trend of population evolution under the background of new urbanization,has become an important measure of population urbanization.Through the investigation to many migrant workers focus points in the urban-rural fringe at Qingshan lake area in Nanchang city and the new construction,the analysis to the investigating data in combination the consultations of experts in sociology,demography,this thesis has preliminary deduced the implementation factors affecting farmers to citizens,which are mainly from the economy,education,psychology and the social four aspects.In order to further explore the degree of four influential aspects on farmers to citizens,based on the original data of investigation,using Logistic regression model to regress and analyze the influential factors of farmers to citizens,the thesis discovers that the average monthly income,education level and coverage of social security play the positive roles to the implementation of farmers to citizens,while the times of backing home is an inverse relationship in the implementation of farmers to citizens,in which the average monthly income and coverage of social security have big impacts on the implementation of farmers to citizens.Finally,research results on influential factors in target puts forward the public policy,and helps migrant workers successfully realize farmers to citizens.