| 基于综合模拟法的重庆市房地产市场风险评估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦建成,王景舒. 基于综合模拟法的重庆市房地产市场风险评估研究[J]. 重庆理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2014, 0(5): 52-56 |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦建成 王景舒 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆理工大学管理学院,重庆400054 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆理工大学2012年研究生创新基金资助项目（YCX2012326）. |
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| 摘 要： | 房地产市场作为重要的消费市场和投资市场，其市场风险的大小一直备受关注。本文结合重庆市2002--2011连续十年的相关数据，采用综合模拟法对2002--2011年的重庆房地产市场风险进行了综合评估。结果表明，重庆市房地产市场总体呈现平稳态势，局部出现较小幅度的波动。受经济发展周期与宏观政策的影响，重庆房地产市场在2005年相对偏冷，2010年相对偏热。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产市场 风险评估 综合模拟法 警情界限 |
Risk Evaluation of Chongqing Real Estate Market Based on the Comprehensive Simulation Method |
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| QIN Jian-cheng,WANG Jing-shu. Risk Evaluation of Chongqing Real Estate Market Based on the Comprehensive Simulation Method[J]. Journal of Chongqing Institute of Technology, 2014, 0(5): 52-56 |
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| Authors: | QIN Jian-cheng WANG Jing-shu |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Business Administration, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China) |
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| Abstract: | The real estate market is an important consumer market and investment market. Its risk has been a concern. Combining with the relevant data of Chongqing during 2002--2011, this paper com- mands a comprehensive evaluation of Chongqing real estate market during 2002--2011 based on the comprehensive simulation method. The results show that there were small amplitude fluctuations in individual years of the real estate market of Chongqing, and the overall situation was stable. With the influence of economical cycle and the macro policy, Chongqing real estate market presented partial cold in 2005 and partial heat in 2010. |
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| Keywords: | the real estate market risk evaluation the comprehensive simulation method the warning line |
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