企业家和消费者信心差异性对疫后经济复苏的影响

新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,理顺企业家信心、消费者信心和产业发展之间关系,对疫后经济政策合理制定,推动中国经济平稳运行至关重要。基于国家统计局2001—2019年的季度统计数据,从信心和产业双重视角出发,构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,通过脉冲响应分析和方差分解,比较企业家信心和消费者信心对二、三产业影响的差异性。结果表明,企业家信心对中国第二产业的影响大于第三产业,而消费者信心短期内对第三产业的影响大于第二产业,随着时间的推移,消费者信心对第二产业的影响效果也愈发明显。相较企业家信心,消费者信心对产业发展的影响更为持久,而且消费者信心对第二产业产出的影响相对滞后。政府应注重对市场预期的引导,结合区域间产业结构差异和不同产业对信心变化的敏感度制定信心刺激政策;兼顾产业未来发展方向和疫情对产业的影响差异,改善信心对相关产业的偏向;结合企业家和消费者信心作用效果的时间特征,制定协同配合的长短期经济政策。

Impact of Differences in Entrepreneur and Consumer Confidence on Post-epidemic Economic Recovery

COVID-19 is spreading in the world currently.It is essential to study the relationship between entrepreneur confidence,consumer confidence and industrial development,which is useful for the rational formulation of post-epidemic economic policies and the healthy development of Chinas economy.Based on the quarterly statistical data of the National Bureau of Statistics from 2001 to 2019,this paper builds a VAR model and compares the differences between the impact of entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidence in the secondary and tertiary industries through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.The results show that the impact of entrepreneur confidence on the second industry is greater than that of the third industry,while the impact of consumer confidence on the third industry is greater than that of the second industry in the short term.As time goes on,the impact of consumer confidence on the second industry is more and more obvious.Compared with the entrepreneur confidence,the influence of consumer confidence on the industrial development is more lasting,and the influence of consumer confidence on the output of the secondary industry is relatively lagging.The government should pay attention to the guidance of market expectation,formulate confidence stimulating policies in combination with the differences of industrial structure between regions and the sensitivity of different industries to the changes of confidence;take into account the differences in the future development direction of the industry and the impact of the epidemic on the industry;improve the bias of confidence on related industries;combine the time characteristics of the effect of the confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers,and formulate long-term and short-term economic policies of coordination.