| 基于广义IOWA算子的安徽省税收组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 林青霞,袁宏俊.基于广义IOWA算子的安徽省税收组合预测模型[J].重庆文理学院学报,2015,34(5):138-142. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林青霞 袁宏俊 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院， 安徽蚌埠233030;安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院， 安徽蚌埠233030 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC630277)；安徽省教育厅高等学校自然科学自筹项目(KJ2013Z004) |
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| 摘 要： | 先引进广义IOWA算子，建立广义IOWA算子组合预测模型.该模型与一般的组合预测方法的不同在于组合预测的赋权系数与预测精度有着紧密联系而与单项预测模型关系不大.这是组合预测方法的一种新的可变赋权方法.在此基础上建立基于广义IOWA算子的税收组合预测模型，并通过与指数平滑方法、线性回归预测方法和灰色预测方法进行比较，发现组合预测模型既稳定又精确.
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| 关 键 词： | 广义IOWA算子 组合预测 税收组合 预测精度 |
A combination forecast for Anhui province tax based on the generalized IOWA operator |
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| LIN Qingxia and YUAN Hongjun.A combination forecast for Anhui province tax based on the generalized IOWA operator[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences,2015,34(5):138-142. |
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| Authors: | LIN Qingxia and YUAN Hongjun |
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| Institution: | Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance&Economics, Bengbu Auhui 233030, China;Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance&Economics, Bengbu Auhui 233030, China |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the generalized IOWA operator, the new combination forecasting model is constructed. The empowerment coefficient prediction closely linked with the prediction accuracy has little relationship with the single prediction model, which is the differences between the combinations of the model and the general prediction method .It is a new combination of variable weights method for forecasting methods. On this basis, the article established the combination forecasting model based on generalized IOWA operator. This paper also makes use of multiple regression model, exponential model and grey prediction to predict the tax of Anhui province. By comparison we can find the accuracy of the combination forecasting model is more stable . |
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