中国经济发展的风险分析与模拟计算

在中国经济增速放缓的背景下,分析了中国经济发展的挑战和中国经济对世界经济的影响,运用牛津全球经济模型对中国经济发展的影响进行了模拟计算。研究表明,较高的债务水平和信贷规模增加了中国经济可持续发展的风险,高位运行的房地产市场加速了金融风险的积累,中美贸易摩擦加剧了外部风险,新冠肺炎疫情造成了中短期风险。随着在贸易、“一带一路”、资金流动、消费、产业融合等方面中国与世界经济的深度融合,中国经济对世界经济的影响逐步加深,模拟结果表明,如果中国的经济增长率每年减缓1%、2%和3%,那么全球经济增长率在2020年分别下降0.2%、0.5%和0.6%。进而,提出了扩大企业融资途径、防控金融风险、抑制房地产杠杆、刺激国内消费、加强宏观审慎监管等政策建议。

Risk Analysis and Simulation Calculation of China's Economic Development

Under the background of Chinas economic slowdown,this paper analyzes the challenges of Chinas economic development and the impact of Chinas economy on the world economy,and uses the Oxford global economic model to simulate the impact of Chinas economic development.The research shows that the high level of debt and credit scale has increased the risk of sustainable development of Chinas economy,the high real estate price has accelerated the accumulation of financial risks,Sino-US trade frictions have exacerbated external risks,and the novel coronavirus epidemic has caused short-term and medium-term risks.With the deep integration of China and the world economy in terms of trade,the “Belt and Road”,capital flows,consumption,and industrial convergence,the influence of the Chinese economy on the world economy has gradually deepened.The simulation results show that if Chinas economic growth rate decreases by 1%,2% and 3% every year,the global economic growth rate will respectively decrease by 0.2%,0.5% and 0.6% in 2020.Furthermore,this article puts forward policy recommendations such as expanding corporate financing channels,preventing financial risks,controlling real estate leverage,stimulating domestic consumption,and strengthening macro-prudential supervision.