非平稳需求状态下虚拟企业牛鞭效应的存在性分析

本文从供应链管理的角度出发,将牛鞭效应的概念和模型引入虚拟企业的运营过程中,运用可变系数的自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型对虚拟企业上下游成员企业需求信息进行预测,研究非平稳需求状态下虚拟企业内上下游企业订货水平的差异,证明了虚拟企业运营中牛鞭效应的存在性,最后提出除虚拟企业的敏捷经营、信息共享对牛鞭效应的影响以外,需求的波动也是影响牛鞭效应的重要因素,并讨论了信息完全共享的情况下牛鞭效应存在的条件.

Analysis on the Existence of the Bullwhip Effect in Virtual Enterprises with Non-Stable Demand

This paper introduces the concept and model of bullwhip effect into the operation of virtual enterprises based on the supply chain management.We uses the varied coefficient ARIMA model to forecast the demand information of upstream and downstream firms in virtual enterprises,and studies the discrepancy of the order level between the upstream and downstream firms,then prove the existence of the bullwhip effect in virtual enterprises.At last we conclude that non-stable demand is also the important factor besides agile management and information sharing,which influence the bullwhip effect,and discuss the condition that bullwhip effect emerges under the situation of complete information sharing.