灾害风险评估发展研究

综合多种灾害概念,提出基于风险评估的灾害定义,在此基础上对国内外的灾害风险评估理论及模型展开分析,包括国际上的"灾害风险指数系统"、"多重风险评估方法"和"美国灾害评估模型"以及国内的自然灾害风险等级评估模型的改进、灾害系统理论等。灾害风险评估研究主要分为灾害发生可能性及灾害脆弱性评估两大方面。灾害风险评估出现风险定量化、风险研究集成化、评估方法标准化的趋势。

A study on the development of disaster risk assessment

Integrating a variety of definitions of disaster, this paper proposes the definition of disaster based on risk assessment perspective. On this basis, it analyses domestic and foreign disaster risk assessment theories and models, including the international ＂Disaster Risk Index System＂, ＂Multi-risk Assessment Methods＂, ＂The U. S. Disaster Assessment Model＂ and the domestic natural disaster risk assessment model improvements, disaster systems theory. Then, it points out that disaster risk assessment research mainly divides into two aspects ： the possibility of disasters and disaster vulnerability assessment. Further, it proposes that there are emerging trends of risk quantification, risk research integration, and assessment methods standardization in disaster risk assessment.