广东金融发展与产业结构升级关系的实证分析

文章在国内外研究成果的基础上，针对广东金融发展与产业结构升级的关系问题，系统分析金融发展与产业结构转变的内在联系，采用1985-2007年反映金融发展和产业结构优化的指标数据，利用非平稳时间序列分析方法和多元回归方法进行定量描述。结果显示产业结构升级指标和金融发展指标相互间存在长期均衡关系，金融发展对第三产业产值的贡献度大于第二产业，对第二产业的贡献度又大于第一产业。因此，为促进广东产业结构升级，应进一步优化金融结构，完善金融体系。

Empirical Research on the Relationship Between Financial Development and Industrial Structure Upgrading of Guangdong

In light of the relationshiop between financial development and industrial structure upgrading of Guangdong, this paper explores the intrinsic relationship between the two. By analyzing the relevant data from 1985 to 2006, and applying non-stationary time series analysis and multiple regression model, the author points out that industrial structure upgrading indices and financial development indices reach a long-term equilibrium, the contribution by financial development to industries follows a decreasing order from tertiary industry, secondary industry to primary industry. Therefore, to further upgrade industrial structure of Guangdong, financial structure should be further optimized, and financial system should be improved.