对我国经济周期波动变化特征的实证分析

我国正处于向市场经济转轨的关键时期,经济结构发生着深刻的变化,这使得我国近 几次出现的经济波动特征也很不相同。近十几年来,我们一直使用预警信号系统等方法监测宏观经 济运行态势,在此基础上,通过对比分析我国20世纪80年代末以来发生的几次经济波动,及各主 要经济变量的动态变化,探寻我国增长率循环(growthratecycles)的产生原因。

The Empirical Analysis of the Characters of Business Cycles in China

China is on its way to the market economy and the economic structure is changing remarkably. The characters of business cycles in recent years vary much. In the recent ten years, we have been using various methods such as Warning Signal System to survey the state of macro economy. Based on these research, this paper analyzes contrastively the dynamic changes of main economic variables in the few economic fluctuations since the end of 1980s in China in order, to explore the essential causes of the Growth Rate Cycles.