近年来我国粮食生产结构变化趋势研究

对2003—2008年全国粮食分品种、分区域增产状况进行了研究，全国粮食增产区域特征为主要来源于主产省生产能力恢复与提升。固定面板效应模型研究结果表明，促进区域粮食增产影响因素按贡献率排序为：粮食播种面积增加〉成灾面积减少〉有效灌溉面积增加〉高产作物比例增加。分品种看，粮食产量区域结构变化特征为：水稻为东北增、华南减、长江流域“双改单”；小麦增产主要来自黄淮海地区；玉米增产省份较多，但主要来自华北和东北地区；豆类是东北北部增加，东北南部减少，西部地区略有增加；薯类则向西北转移。

The Changes in the Structure of China's Grain Supply in Recent Years

The analysis of the grain supply structure from 2003 to 2008 shows that the successive rich harvests contribute mostly to the recovering and promoting of the producing power of the major grain-producing provinces. The contributing factors, in the descending order, include increase of acreage, decease of disaster, improvement of irrigation and increment of high-yielding crops. The supplies of different varieties show different characteristics. Paddy supply increases in the Northeast, but decreases in the Sou...