从主权国家的兴衰看权力博弈形态的转型

传统的国际关系理论,无论是现实主义、自由主义、建构主义还是科学行为主义理论,都是把主权国家抽象成一个统一的国际关系行为体。这一行为主体有一致的利益,也自然要有一致的对外政策目标和手段。在20世纪,尤其是在两次世界大战和冷战期间,这一概念抽象是非常准确的。但冷战结束以后,尤其是进入21世纪以后,这一概念抽象逐渐与国际关系的现实相违背。一方面,国家综合实力并不能直接转化为具体领域的竞争优势;另一方面,很多国家,包括超级大国在内,其对外政策的主要阻力可能不是所谓的竞争对手,而是其国内不同的利益集团。这导致传统的国际关系理论,从假设到概念和推理层面,都已经无法解释和预测今天的世界,而权力小博弈理论可以为认识多元复杂互动博弈时代的国际关系提供一个新的解释框架。

Transformation of Power Games from the Perspective of Rise and Fall of Sovereign States

Traditional international relations theories, whether it is realism, liberalism, constructivism, or scientific behaviorism,abstract sovereign states into a unified international relations actor. This actor has the single interest, and naturally must have the unified foreign policy goals and means. In the 20 th century, especially during the two world wars and the Cold War, this conceptual abstraction was very accurate. But during the post Cold War, especially in the 21 st century, this conceptual abstraction gradually went against the reality of international relations. On one hand, a country’s comprehensive strength cannot be directly transformed into a competitive advantage in a specific field;on the other hand, many countries, including great powers, may not be the so-called competitors in their foreign policy, but their different domestic interests group. This has led to traditional international relations theories, from assumptions to concepts and reasoning levels, which are no longer able to explain and predict the world today, so the theory of small power games may provide a new interpretation framework for understanding international relations in the era of multiple and complex interactive games.