Evidence of Convergence Clubs Using Mixture Models

Cross-country economic convergence has been increasingly investigated by finite mixture models. Multiple components in a mixture reflect groups of countries that converge locally. Testing for the number of components is crucial for detecting “convergence clubs.” To assess the number of components of the mixture, we propose a sequential procedure that compares the shape of the hypothesized mixture distribution with the true unknown density, consistently estimated through a kernel estimator. The novelty of our approach is its capability to select the number of components along with a satisfactory fitting of the model. Simulation studies and an empirical application to per capita income distribution across countries testify for the good performance of our approach. A three-clubs convergence seems to emerge.