云南未来人口发展预测及经济影响

进一步降低人口自然增长率,是云南省在较长时期仍然将稳定实施的人口控制政策的主要目标,这一目标的逻辑结果是在21世纪中叶左右使云南人口实现零增长,并在持续的负增长过程中减少云南人口总量①。因此预测未来云南人口增长的趋势,并对4个预测方案进行比较和评述,估计云南峰值人口规模、人口自然增长率、人口抚养关系以及人口老龄化等重要人口指标未来变化的可能性,分析与这种变化相关的主要社会经济影响,具有重要意义。

The Prospect of the Population Growth in Yunnan and Its Economic Influence

To further reduce the natural population growth will be the main long-term goal of Yunnan's population policy. Its logical result is the zero population growth in the middle of the 21st century and with its continuous negative growth it is expected that the total population in Yunnan will be reduced. It will have much significance to predict the population growth in Yunnan revealed in the following four estimations and analyses, the expected peak of population, the natural population growth, the care-taking responsibilities as well as the socio-economic influence.