模糊供求条件下应急物资动态调度决策研究

围绕大规模突发事件应急的特点，在供应点、集配中心到需求点的三级供应网络的基础上，研究了模糊供求条件下的多模式联合调运的应急物资动态调度问题。首先建立了在需求满足率最大化的基础上，以总运输时间和应急成本为目标的带序关系的多目标非线性规划模型。考虑供大于求和供不应求两种供求关系，对于供不应求的物资，下一周期将优先配给。另外，采用最可能值法确定模糊数的权重和置信水平，采用平均权重法将三角模糊数转化为确定值，给出了去模糊化的策略和具体算法。通过决策者对运输时间和应急成本的动态赋权，提高了模型的柔性。最后以汶川地震为背景，设计仿真实例，验证了模型和算法的有效性。

Decision-Making for Emergency Materials Dynamic Dispatching Based on Fuzzy Demand and Supply

In order to solve the emergency material dispatching problem for major disasters, based on three-level network of the supply points, supply hubs and demand points, the fuzzy demand and supply conditions and intermodal transportation are studied in this paper. Firstly,a multi-objective nonlinear programming model is proposed with the objectives of total transportation time and cost on the condition of maximizing demand fulfillment rate. It considers two situations of oversupply and short supply. The materials of short supply are supplied with priority Furthermore, the most likely value method is used to determine the weight of fuzzy number and level of confidence. Triangular fuzzy number is converted to determine value with the average weight method. It provides defuzzification strategies and specific algorithm. Decision-makers dynamically give weights to both the objectives thus the flexibility of the model is improved. It finally designs a simulation example according the background of Wenchuan earthquake and verifies the validity of the model with the example.