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Forecasting of some; transformed series
Authors:D. K. Massiuma  N. Ordoukhani
Affiliation:1. Department of Statistics , University of Manitoba , Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N2;2. Department of Mathematics , East Carolina University , Greenville, Nc, 27858
Abstract:The delta method is proposed as a. retransformation approach for coramputing forecasts for a nonstationary process (Z$inf:t$einf t, = 1, 2, ...), A derived variance stabilizing transformation technique is also used to compute forecasts, The performance of the two methods is compared to other techniques. Numerical results show that forecasts based on the variance stabilizing transformation method (VSTM) can lead to forecasts with a lower mean square error (MSE) as compared to other transformation techniqnes.
Keywords:nonstationary series  variance stabilizing transformation  delta method  power transformations  hermite polynomials  backtransformation
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