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Bayesian prediction for small areas using sur models
Authors:Getachew Asfaw Dagne  S James Press
Institution:1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics , University of South Florida , Tampa, FL, 33612;2. Department of Statistics , University of California, Riverside , Riverside, CA, 92521
Abstract:Sample surveys are usually designed and analyzed to produce estimates for larger areas and/or populations. Nevertheless, sample sizes are often not large enough to give adequate precision for small area estimates of interest. To circumvent such difficulties, borrowing strength from related small areas via modeling becomes essential. In line with this, we propose a hierarchical multivariate Bayes prediction method for small area estimation based on the seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated through simulation studies.
Keywords:Hierarchical Bayes  prediction  random effects  multivariate  small area estimation  Gibbs sampler
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