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Estimating the discovery rate in a continuous time recapture model
Authors:Rajan Gupta  Larry Lee
Affiliation:1. Department of Clinical Research , Pfizer Central Research , Groton, CT;2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics , Old Dominion University , Norfolk, VA, 23529-0077
Abstract:We consider a family of marked Poisson process models for the discovery of distinct errors in a computer program and also for sampling, in continu-ous time, a population containing an unknown number of distinct biological species. Captures (selections or discoveries) are assumed to occur at a con-stant rate, each event consisting of the discovery of a distinct process (error or species) or the recurrence of a previously discovered process. Using a generalization of Nayak’s (1988) model we derive confidence limits for the discovery rate. The limits are based on the asymptotic distribution of a scaled logarithmic function of the maximum likelihood estimator.
Keywords:marked Poisson process  confidence limits  asymptotic distribution
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