中国经济发展中的水资源安全分析

本文对中国未来发展中的水资源瓶颈问题作了分析。分析发现如果中国产业结构没有明显进步,Brown对中国发展的水资源诘难将可能成为现实。在调整全国产业结构达到目前北京的产业结构水平的条件下,加上适当的开源节流,中国的持续发展是可能的。

Analysis of Water Resource Problem in Chinese Economic Development

In 1994, World Watch, an American famous magazine publishe an article named "Who Will Feed China?" written by Lester R. Brown. In the paper Brown indicated that the irrigation land shortages will lead China forward so large a grain deficit that it can’t afford itself and need to import so many grains from the international market. In 1998, Brown issue another article "China’s Water Shortaes Could shake World Food Security". In article, Brown emphased that the most serious thing about Chinese grain deficit is, instead of land shortage, the shortages of irrigation water. With model analysis on inverse problem of linear programming problem, This paper gave a discussion about water problem of China, the result to that Chinese available water supply is not enough to implement the development the development target by 2000 but is not by 2010 and 2030, if we only take the two measures which are both increasing water use efficiency and improving wate supply. To solve the problem, every practical measure of water adding should be carried out and at the same time the industrial system need to be evolution to the level of Beijing’s at 1995. So that, China is able overcome water bottleneck in development.