网上征信、政府监管与网贷市场演化——基于系统动力学仿真

基于系统的视角,以“网贷天眼” 和“网贷之家” 的行业月报为数据样本,运用系统动力学探究网贷市场的演化趋势,并重点分析政府监管、网上征信对其演化的影响。结果表明:首先,网贷市场呈现倒U 形演化趋势,未来运营平台数量将进一步下降。其次,在不同的网贷市场发展阶段,政府监管和网上征信对网贷市场的良性演化具有不同的影响。其中,在市场发展初期,政府监管对网贷市场良性演化的影响不显著,而网上征信对网贷市场演化具有负向影响,且网上征信比政府监管对网贷市场演化影响更为显著;在市场发展成熟期,二者对网贷市场良性演化均具有负向影响,但网上征信比政府监管对网贷市场演化的影响更显著;在市场发展后期,政府监管对网贷市场良性演化具有正向影响,而网上征信负向影响网贷市场良性演化,并且,政府监管比网上征信对网贷市场演化的影响更显著。为此,提高征信数据质量、持续强化平台监管、加快科技赋能步伐,将有助于网贷市场的健康发展。

Online Credit Investigation, Government Supervision and Online LoanMarket Evolution: Based on System Dynamics Simulation

Based on the perspective of the system, this paper focuses on the impact of government supervisionand online credit information on the evolution of the online loan market by applying the system dynamicsand taking the data from industry monthly reports of P2P Eye and WDZJ as its sample. The results showed thatthe online loan market presents an inverted U-shaped evolution trend, and the number of operating platformswill further decline in the future. Moreover, the impact of government regulation and online credit investigationon the benign evolution of the online loan market varies among different market stages. In the early stage of marketdevelopment, government supervision has no significant impact on the benign evolution of the online loanmarket, while online credit investigation has a negative effect. Meanwhile, the influence of online credit investigationexerted on the evolution of the online loan market is more significant than that of government regulation.In the mature stage of market development, both of them have a negative impact on the benign evolution of theonline loan market, but the impact of online credit investigation is more significant than that of government supervision.In the later stage of market development, government regulation has a positive effect on the benign evolutionof the online loan market, while online credit investigation exerts a negative effect. Besides, the effectthat government supervision exerts on the evolution of the online loan market is more significant than that of onlinecredit information. Therefore, improving the quality of credit data, continuously strengthening platform supervision,and accelerating the pace of technological empowerment will contribute to the healthy development ofthe online loan market.