中国与RCEP国家贸易潜力研究

文章运用ESI 和G-L 指数对2005—2019 年中国和其他RCEP 国家的统计数据进行对外贸易 竞争性和互补性分析,并构建拓展的贸易引力模型,对中国与RCEP 伙伴国的影响因素及其贸易潜力进 行实证分析。结果表明:(1)中国同RCEP 各国的贸易竞争性和互补性体现在不同的产品领域,且国家间 差异较大;(2)中国与RCEP 伙伴国的经济规模、首都距离、双方人口之比、对外开放度以及双方是否签订 FTA、是否接壤均在不同程度上影响双方贸易的流量;(3)中国同RCEP 各国的贸易潜力系数围绕1 上下 小幅波动,潜力尚有释放空间。基于此,就如何进一步深化中国同RCEP 各国经贸合作,提升双边贸易潜 力提出政策建议。

Research on Trade Potential Between China and RCEP Countries

This paper uses ESI and G-L indexes to analyze the foreign trade competitiveness and complementarity of China and other RCEP countries from 2005 to 2019. Moreover, an expanded trade gravity model is constructed to empirically analyze the influencing factors and trade potential between China and RCEP partners. The results show that:the trade competitiveness and complementarity between China and RCEP countries are reflected in different product fields, and there are great differences among countries;the economic scale of China and its partner countries, the distance between their capitals, the ratio of the population of both sides, the openness of the partner countries, and whether the two sides sign FTA and border all affect the bilateral trade flow to different degrees;the trade potential coefficient between China and RCEP countries fluctuates slightly around 1, indicating that there is still room to release the potential. In view of this, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on how to further deepen economic and trade cooperation between China and RCEP countries and enhance bilateral trade potential.