提高1个百分点的消费率可以使第三产业比重上升0．26个百分点

摘　　要:理论与实践都表明，提高消费率会使第三产业比重上升。本文根据最新编制的全国投入产出表，具体测算出一个因果关系，即提高1个百分点的消费率可以使第三产业比重上升0．26个百分点。此外，本文还得出其他几个重要结论，包括：影响第三产业比重的因素除了消费率外，还有产业分工、消费结构、投资结构等；与日本相比．我国在生产消耗和最终消费中对第三产业需求比例明显偏低；但投资中对第三产业的需求比例高于日本水平；不能简单地把第三产业比重的高低作为衡量一个国家或地区产业结构合理与否的标准。

One Percentage Increase of Consumption Rate Results in 0.26 Percentage Increase of Proportion of Value Added of Tertiary Industry in GDP

According to the theory and practice, the rise of consumption rate may increase the ratio of tertiary industry in GDP.On the basis of the newly-compiled national input-output table,this article measures a kind of causation,that is,raising 1% of the consumption rate may increase 0.26% of the ratio of tertiary industry.Additionally,several crucial conclusions are obtained in this article,including:industrial division,consumption structure and investment structure would influence the ratio of tertiary industry as well as consumption rate; China is distinctly lower than Japan in the demand proportion of production expenditure and final consumption while higher in investment; the proportion of tertiary industry cannot be the only criteria to measure the rationality of industrial structure in one country or region.