独生子女政策对人力资本水平的影响研究--基于2005年1%人口抽样调查微观数据的实证研究

本文利用2005年1%人口抽样调查的微观数据估计了独生子女政策对中国人力资本水平的影响效应，为独生子女政策是否实现了“优生优育”的政策目标提供实证证据。研究发现，独生子女政策显著提高了独生子女的人力资本水平，促使他们获得高中及以上教育程度的概率平均提高了2．7个百分点。本文还发现，独生子女政策对人力资本水平的影响效应在城乡和性别间存在显著差异，在城市的影响效应大于农村，对女性的影响大于男性，独生子女政策一定程度上扩大了人力资本水平的城乡差距，然而对缩小性别间的人力资本差距起到积极作用，进一步研究发现人力资本水平的性别间差距缩小作用主要发生在城市内部，城市女性是独生子女政策的最大受益者。最后，本文通过缩小样本的出生时间范围、与少数民族样本的对比、控制父母亲的个人特征以及采用不同的人力资本衡量指标等方法对估计结果进行了稳健性检验，结果相当稳健。

The Effect of the One-Child Policy on Human Capital in China:Evidence from 1% Sampling Survey 2005

Using micro data of 1% sampling survey 2005, this paper estimates the effect of the one-child policy on human capital. The finding shows that that the one-child policy significantly increases the human capital of the only child and the probability of their getting high school or higher education level increases 2.7 percentages under the one-child policy. However the effect is more significant in the urban and for women, that is to say the one-child policy has widened the human capital gap between the urban and the rural while reduced the gender inequality in human capital. The urban women are the biggest beneficiaries of the one-child policy. Finally, this paper makes robust tests support the findings by narrowing the range of sample's birth time, comparison with sample of ethnic minorities, controlling personal characteristics of parents, and using different approaches to measure human capital.