1991—2014年我国婴儿死亡率变化及其影响因素

利用1991—2014年卫生部监测点定点调查资料和五普、六普中相关数据,研究婴儿死亡率随时间变化规律以及在不同时间和空间范围内婴儿死亡率随人均GDP、城市化水平发生变化的规律。然后根据这些规律,估算2010年我国各地城乡、男女婴儿死亡率分布情况。分析发现,我国婴儿死亡率随时间呈现等比下降的规律,而其与城市化水平、人均GDP等经济社会变量亦有关系,但不甚稳定,预测和模拟偏差较大。分析发现,六普中,我国婴儿死亡漏报率为68%,主要发生在农村及欠发达地区。

Infant mortality Rate( 1991- 2014) and Its Influencing Factors

Using the survey data by Ministry of Health and the fifth and sixth population census, the paper studies on the changing rates of infant mortality, which are affected by times, places, GDP per capita, and levels of urbanization. By the change rule, the infant mortality rate distribution of male and female infants can be estimated. It is found that the infant mortality rate is decreasing and is relat-ed to other economical and social variables, and it is unstable. In the sixth population census, 68%infant mortality failed to be declared, which took place mainly in the rural areas.