| 试析经济预测的误区 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔毅.试析经济预测的误区[J].山西大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2000,23(1):58-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔毅 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西大学经济系，山西 太原 030006 |
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| 摘 要： | 预测的本质是用事物的历史规律去解决事物未来的确定性。预测的方法按技术性进行分类有数学论、通信论、情报论三类预测方法，经济预测中用得最多的是数学预测方法。本文仅就经济预测中的种种误区进行分析，并提出了提高经济预测可靠性的若干建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济预测 数学论 逻辑 数据质量 可靠性 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-5935(2000)01-0058-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年9月13日 |
An Analysis of the Errors Made in Economy- Forecasting |
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| CUI Yi.An Analysis of the Errors Made in Economy- Forecasting[J].Journal of Shanxi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition),2000,23(1):58-61. |
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| Authors: | CUI Yi |
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| Abstract: | The nature of forecast is to derive the degree of certainty of things in the future from its past regularities. According to the techniques applied, forecast method can be divided into three categories; the mathematical approach, the communication approach and the information approach. Among the three, the first one is the most frequently used. In this paper, various errors made in economy - forecasting are analyzed and some suggestions are made to improve the reliabilities of the forecast. |
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| Keywords: | economy - forecast mathematical approach logic quality reliability |
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