能源安全与经济增长的双赢机制研究

选取1982—2010年中国一次性能源消耗月度数据作为样本,测算我国能源缺口量,建立国际能源价格波动率与国内一次性消耗能源价格波动率之间的VAR模型。研究表明:中国一次性能源缺口逐年增大,能源对外依存度加深;国际能源价格对中国能源价格具有显著影响,对中国CPI的影响具有滞后性。认为可以通过能源结构调整、区域能源效率差异调整以及能源内部替代的方式实现能源安全和经济增长。

Win-win Mechanism of Energy Security and Economic Growth

This paper selects primary energy consumption data of China during 1982-2010 as sample and measures the amount of energy gap in our country through the establishment of VAR model between the international energy price volatility and domestic primary energy prices. It finds that the primary energy gap increases year by year, and energy external dependency deepens. The international energy price has a significant influence on domestic primary energy prices, with a lagging impact on China's CPI. This paper proposes some suggestions to achieve the objectives of energy security and economic growth at the same time, which are energy structure adjustment, regional efficiency difference adjustment and internal energy replacement.