对转型期中国犯罪实际发案情况的估测

本文以联合国犯罪受害调查和公安部的立案不实调查为依据,对我国1978年以来犯罪的实际发案情况进行了估测。考虑到有许多犯罪案件发生后受害人没有报案以及立案不实顽症的客观存在,我国的犯罪问题实际上比以立案数为标准的统计值所反映的情况要严重得多。2004年全国犯罪发案数、犯罪率分别达到约2348万起、1800起／10万人,分别比同年犯罪立案数统计值 (471．8万起)和犯罪率统计值(363起／10万人)高4倍。不过,我国的犯罪率仍然低于世界平均水平。

Estimation of Actual Exposed Cases in Transitional Period in China

Basing on the UN's survey of criminal victimization and the Ministry of Public Security's survey of cases that are placed on unreal files, this article estimated the actual criminal cases took place in China from 1978 till now. The actual crime issue is much more serious than that was reflected by the data based on the number of registered cases, because many victims didn't report to the police and there are many cases placed on unreal files. In 2004, the total number of crime cases in China was 23,480,000, which was four times of the registered number (4,718,000) of the same year. The crime rate was 1,800 cases per 100,000 persons, which is also 4 times of the registered number (363/100,000) of the same year, but the actual rate was still under the average level of the world.