Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability,Conceptions, and Births |
| |
Authors: | David A Lam Jeffrey A Miron Ann Riley |
| |
Institution: | 1. Department of Economics Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, 48104-2590, Ann Arbor, MI 2. Department of Economics, Boston University, 270 Bay State Road, 02215, Boston, MA 3. Department of Demography, Georgetown University, Room 236 Poulton Hall, 20057-1043, Washington, DC
|
| |
Abstract: | This paper develops a model of seasonal fluctuations in fecundability, conceptions, and births. We begin with a model of individual fecundability that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the roles of coital frequency, sperm concentration, fetal loss, and contraception. The individual-level model is then expanded into a model of seasonal fluctuations in births at the population level, which accounts explicitly for seasonal fluctuations in the size of the susceptible population. We illustrate the use of the model by analyzing proposed explanations of birth seasonality that rely on extreme summer heat. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|