以改革的思维调整宏观经济治理原则

从总体上看,中国的宏观经济已经由萧条进入了复苏,但从＂止跌-复苏＂四阶段理论来看,中国宏观经济还处于＂政策刺激性反弹阶段＂向＂市场需求反弹阶段＂的过渡期,经济全面复苏的基础还比较薄弱。本次刺激计划本质上是投资驱动型方案,而以投资为主体的短期刺激政策并不足以引领中国走出＂周期性＂与＂全局性＂的经济衰退。本文认为,＂扩内需＂与＂增长模式的转轨＂必须以＂改革＂为前提和先导;短期宏观刺激政策的效率不取决于刺激的大小,还在于宏观调控政策的微观传递机制的重塑。因此,以改革的思维调整宏观经济治理原则就显得非常重要。

Adjust the macroeconomic governance principles based on the thinking of reform

China＇s macroeconomic has recovered from the depression.But it is still during the transition from the recovery stage pushed forward by policy to the recovery stage pushed forward by market demand.The stimulus package is essentially an investment-driven program and cannot lead China out of the global economic recession.The expansion of domestic demand must be based on the premise of reform.The stimulative efficiency of short-term macroeconomic policy depends on the mirco transmission mechanism.So,it＇s very impormant to adjust the macroeconomic governance principles based on the thinking of reform.