资本自由流动、货币政策独立性、汇率制度稳定性三元发展趋势研究——基于三元悖论理论

三元悖论论述的是各国央行必须在货币政策独立性、自由的资本流动和稳定的汇率这三个元中做出取舍,为央行的政策组合选择提供理论约束。但是,该理论并没有对三个元的发展方向和趋势做出明确论述。根据对三个元的理论拆解和历史沿革分析发现,资本自由流动,货币政策独立性和汇率稳定性这三元分别存在着独立发展逻辑、历史发展路径和未来发展趋势,资本自由流动是三个元中主动变化的主元。1970年到2016年全球183个国家金融开放度指数和2008年到2019年中国货币政策独立性等实证检验论证了这一研究结论。因此,央行选择政策组合时,应明确资本自由流动这一主元,逐步推进资本自由流动,放宽金融管制,同时根据实际国情选择适合该国的货币和汇率的政策组合。小型经济体可选择放弃部分货币独立性以保持该国汇率的稳定,大型经济体可选择放宽部分汇率波动区间,保留部分的货币政策独立性。

Trilemma-Based Research on the Development Trend of Capital Mobility,Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate

The theory of Trilemma states that it is impossible for central banks to achieve the three elements of monetary policy independence,free capital flow and stable exchange rate at the same time.It provides theoretical constraints for central banks’policy choices.However,this theory did not clearly discuss the development trend of capital mobility,monetary policy and exchange rate.Based on the theoretic analysis and history analysis,this article proposes that these three elements have their own independent development logic,historical development path and future development trends with capital mobility the main factor among the three.It further demonstrates this view through empirical verification of the financial openness indexes of 183 countries worldwide from 1970 to 2016 and the independence of China’s monetary policy from 2008 to 2019.The article suggests that when a central bank chooses a policy portfolio,it should clarify that the capital mobility is the main factor and gradually liberalize the free flow of capital and financial controls.Meanwhile,each country should select appropriate monetary policy and exchange rate based on the actual situation.Small economies can choose to abandon part of their currency independence in order to maintain the stability of exchange rates,while large economies may choose to retain part of their monetary policy independence and gradually liberalize part of the exchange rate fluctuation range.