考虑自适应行为的研发网络风险传播模型构建及仿真

构建风险视域下研发网络企业自适应行为规则,基于SIS模型构建研发网络风险传播模型,运用数值仿真的方法通过改变模型参数探索在考虑自适应行为的情况下研发网络的风险传播规律,研究结果表明:(1)C1策略增强了网络的层次性和社团强度,一定程度上抑制了研发网络中风险的传播;C2策略下节点之间新连接的建立更多是基于临近性的考量,容易陷入路径依赖和能力陷阱;(2)研发网络企业的自适应行为会导致社团强度的涨落,平均路径长度的下降以及平均聚类系数的增长充分体现出C1策略的有效性。(3)C1策略下,断边概率p与I*之间呈现"U"型相关关系;在C2策略下随着断边概率p的增长I*逐渐降低。(4)在C1策略和C2策略下,随着参数ζ的增长I*也随之增长,可知组织依赖水平是研发网络风险传播控制中需要重点关注的因素。本文揭示了在考虑自适应行为的情况下研发网络的风险传播规律,为网络化运作背景下研发网络治理提供理论依据。

Risk Propagation Modeling and Simulation in R&D Network when Considering the Adaptive Behaviors

In the modern society, faced with the complexity of technology, scarcity of the dynamic of market demands, it has become an effective mode for R&D project to form a network composed of many companies. Certainly, R&D network will help R&D firms to reduce costs and risks. However, when a firm in the network is not efficiently involved in the R&D project due to changes of the external market environment or its own poor management, this kind of event will have a negative effect on other firms that cooperate with him, which may propagate and result in paralysis of the network, this phenomenon is the cascading failure of the R&D network.According to literature review, many studies focus on analyzing the cascading failure of the R&D network from the perspective of static network, few studies research the cascading failure of the R&D network from the perspective of adaptive network. Compared with the static network, adaptive network concerns that the network can actively change its topology during the cascading failure process. This is a ubiquitous and very important phenomenon, which can help us further explain the law of the cascading failure of the R&D network.Firstly, the BBV algorithm is proposed to build the R&D network. And the roles are generated to describe the adaptive evolution process when a node is infected. The adaptive model consists of two steps, one is to choose the tie to break, the other is to choose the node to generate new tie for the susceptible node in the broken tie.Secondly, the cascading failure model of the R&D network is proposed, combined with the characteristics of the R&D network and the SIS model. Compared with other cascading failure models, such as the Load-capacity model and the Mean-field, this model can represent the discrete spatial and temporal evolution of the cascading failure of the R&D network.Finally, different effectiveness of these rewiring strategies is analyzed against the cascading failures of the R&D network under different values of some critical parameters. The simulation results show that (1) C1 strategy enhances the hierarchy and community strength of the R&D network and mitigates the propagation of risk in the R&D network to a certain extent. The establishment of new connections between nodes under C2 strategy is basically based on the proximity, which is easy to fall into path dependence and ability traps. (2) The adaptive behavior of R&D network will lead to the fluctuation of community strength, the decrease of average path length and the increase of average clustering coefficient reflect the effectiveness of C1 strategy. (3) Under the C1 strategy, there is a "U" correlation between the rewiring probability p and I*, and I* decreases gradually with the rewiring probability p under the C2 strategy. (4) Under the C1 strategy and the C2 strategy, as the parameter ζ increases, I* also increases. It is known that the level of organizational dependence is a key factor in the mitigation of the risk propagation of the R&D network. The rules of risk propagation of R&D network when considering the adaptive behaviors are revealed and a theoretical basis for R&D network governance in the context of network operation is provided.