基于能源替代与环境污染治理的两阶段经济增长路径研究

研究了一个包含污染治理和能源替代的两阶段经济增长模型，首先利用动态最优化方法，基于社会福利最大化目标给出了分别由传统能源支撑和新能源支撑经济系统的经济增长速度、污染变化速度以及最优的污染治理投资占总产出的比例。然后借助两阶段最优化理论，得到了最优替代节点所满足的方程，发现经济结构、技术水平等因素都会对最优替代节点产生影响。最后通过数值模拟给出了经济最优增长路径以及相关参数对最优替代节点的影响程度。结果显示，最优的能源替代节点处经济增长不连续，新能源支撑的经济发展速度要高于传统能源支持的经济增长速度；如果传统能源支撑的经济系统污染的产出弹性较大，则在能源替代发生以后可能需要更多的时间治理已经产生的污染；另外提高污染治理效率会延缓能源替代，而提高技术对污染的控制效率可以促进能源替代进程。

Study on Two-phase Economic Growth Path Based on Pollution Control and Energy Substitution

The coordinated development of energy consumption, economic growth and environment is an important aspect of sustainable development. How to achieve sustainable economic growth under the double constraints of energy and environment has always been a hot spot in energy economics research. Since the consumption of fossil energy will bring serious environmental externalities and intergenerational externalities, new energy sources have developed rapidly in recent years, and the role of promoting economic growth has become more and more obvious. China's energy transformation has begun, the share of new energy consumption in the energy consumption structure has increased rapidly, and the energy substitution effect is remarkable. To better understand the impact of the energy transition on economic growth,a two-phase economic growth model including the adoption of a backstop substitute and pollution control is studied. Then the optimal proportion of pollution investment accounted for GDP and the equation which optimal switching time satisfies is determined by social welfare maximization. At last the numerical simulation analysis is done to show the effect of some parameters on the optimal switching time and the optimal path of economic growth and the pollution are also given.The results show that at the optimal switching time of the two stage of economic growth path, the total amount of new energy support will decrease temporarily, but the economic growth rate of new energy supported is higher than that of traditional energy support.If the output elasticity of pollution in the traditional energy supported economy is larger, after the energy substitution occurs,longer time will be needed to control the pollution that has been produced.