中国农业绿色全要素生产率时空演变

基于"资源-能源-经济-环境"构建农业绿色全要素生产率理论分析框架,设计测算指标,改进EBM模型并结合ML指数从静态和动态视角测算并解析农业绿色全要素生产率增长源泉,采用核密度函数和空间马尔科夫链从时空视域分析中国农业绿色全要素生产率的动态演变规律。结论:一是农业绿色全要素生产率更真实、合理反映农业效率。二是2006-2016年间中国农业绿色全要素生产率呈微幅波动上升趋势,增长的动力源泉在于农业绿色技术进步。三是农业绿色全要素生产率区域差异明显,长期内区域差异不会缩小,区域差异的根源在于农业绿色技术效率。四是中国农业绿色全要素生产率具有空间集聚特性,空间滞后类型对区域转移的稳定程度具有显著影响;"以邻为善"与"以邻为壑"并存;与农业绿色全要素生产率水平较高区域相邻,会降低向低水平转移的概率,但跨界式增长难以实现。政策含义是制定区域差异化的AGTFP增长策略,实现中国农业区域协调、绿色增长。

Time-Space Evolution of China's Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity

Basedon "resource-energy-economy-environment" to construct a theoretical frameworkfor agricultural green total factor productivity, design and measure indicators, improve EBM model and measure growth sources from static and dynamic perspectives with ML index, using nuclear density function and space Marcov chain to analyzes the dynamic evolution of China's agricultural green total factor productivity from the perspective of time and space. Results show that:Firstly,Agricultural green total factor productivity is more realistic and reasonable reflects agricultural efficiency. Second, China's agricultural green total factor productivity shows a slight upward trend increasing from 0.607 to 0.684 in 2006-2016,and the source of growth is the advancement of agricultural green technology. The regional differences in the total factor productivity of agricultural greens are obvious, and the regional differences will not shrink in the long run. The root of regional differences lies in the efficiency of agricultural green technology. The four-agricultural green total factor productivity has spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the spatial lag type has a significant impact on the degree of regional transfer stability; the neighboring is good and the neighboring is the same as the neighboring; and the agricultural green total factor productivity level is higher, the lowering will be lower. The probability of horizontal transfer, but cross-border growth is difficult to achieve.The policy implication is to strengthen the positive spatial spillover effect, weaken the negative spillover effect, and formulate regionally differentiated strategies to achieve coordinated green growth in agriculture in China.