基于多区域CGE模型的长江经济带一体化政策效果分析

长江经济带是中国最具潜力的经济地带。如何充分发挥长江黄金水道作用,促进产业分工协作和有序转移,促进长江经济带一体化发展,已成为推动长江经济带高质量发展的重要课题。为此,政府制定怎样的政策以及政策效果如何,将对长江经济带一体化发展至关重要。本文构建了中国长江经济带的多区域CGE模型,并用其定量模拟研究了降低运输成本、促进产业转移以及复合政策等不同促进长江经济带一体化发展政策对长江经济带内部各区域经济和一体化发展的影响效果。研究表明降低运输成本和促进产业转移的复合政策,有助于促进产业转移并减轻对欠发达地区的负面冲击,有利于长江经济带的一体化发展及收入差距缩小,是较好的政策选择。促进长江经济带一体化发展,需要在加强交通基础建设的同时推进产业空间重构,可采取空间差异化的税收政策,鼓励产业转移,发展中西部地区的产业链和产业集群,同时管控好产业转移的环境风险。

Analysis on Policy Effects of Integration of Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on a Multi-regional CGE Model

The Yangtze River Economic Belt is the most potential economic region in China. How to give full play to the role of the Yangtze golden waterway, promote the industrial division of labor, cooperation and orderly transfer, and accelerate the integrated development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has become an important issue to promote the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. What kind of policies the government makes and how effective the policies are will be crucial to the integrated development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. A multi-regional CGE model of China's Yangtze River economic belt is built with the database of 2012 interregional input-output table, and it is used to quantitatively simulate the impacts of different potential policies (reduce transportation costs, promote industrial spatial transfer, and mixed policy) for the integration of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, on the regional economy and the integration within the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results show that:(1) Enhancing the east-west land transportation construction and reducing the transportation cost in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will facilitate the development of integration within the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan will benefit significantly, while Chongqing will suffer a lot because of severer competition. (2) By implementation of different taxing rate across regions to enhance industrial spatial transfer, heavy chemical industry transfer can be promoted from the Yangtze River Delta with limited environmental bearing capacity to Chongqing-Sichuan and other upstream and middle stream regions. As a result, the income gap will narrow but economic integration effect in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will be not improved. (3) By combined use of abovementioned two policy, industry spatial transfer can be promoted while negative influence for less-developed area can be decreased, which contributes to the integration development and income gap reduction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Therefore, to boost the integration development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it is necessary to promote industrial space reconstruction while strengthening transportation infrastructure construction. Spatially differentiated tax policy can be adopted to encourage industrial transfer, and industrial chains and clusters can be developed in the central and western regions. At the same time, the environmental risk of industrial transfer should be well controlled. The research results of this paper can provide important theoretical reference and decision support for the policy-making of the integrated development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.