信贷环境与类型差异情景下的PPP项目政府经济承诺决策

为破解政府在PPP项目中存在的"承诺不足"与"承诺过度"决策难题,基于项目类型和信贷环境差异构建四种决策情景,融合优化决策与实物期权理论构建政府经济承诺决策模型,通过Kuhn-Tucker条件分析模型解的条件与边界并设计计算机求解算法,以W市城东污水处理项目为例进行数值模拟探讨政府经济承诺决策规律。结果表明:情景差异将会影响政府经济承诺决策;政府经济承诺可以提升项目价值,但较高的经济承诺未必导致较高的承诺成本;政府应对收益波动型项目给予更低的经济承诺,应在信贷收紧时给予更高的经济承诺,反之亦然;政府可以通过转移收益分配权和增加投资额来降低经济承诺,且不同情景效果具有差异。本文系统刻画了信贷环境与类型差异对经济承诺决策的影响,对于明晰经济承诺的决策成本及其后果、控制PPP项目金融风险、优化我国政府经济承诺决策等具有积极价值。

Government Economic Commitment Decision-making under Difference Scenarios of Credit Environment and Revenue Type in PPP Projects

The purpose of this paper is to solve the problem of insufficient or excessive government economic commitment existing in Chinese PPP projects. First, four scenarios are constructed to describe differences between project types and credit environment. Secondary, a government economic commitment decision-making model is developed by combining the optimization decision with the real option theory. Then, besides analyzing the conditions and boundaries of the model solution, a computer solution algorithm is provided with no analytical solution based on sequential unconstrained minimization technique. Finally, the decision-making rules of the sewage treatment project in W city are explored by numerical simulation analysis method. The results show that scenario difference affects government's economic commitment decision, the government’s economic commitment will add the value of the project, but higher economic commitment does not necessarily lead to higher commitment costs. Government should give lower economic commitments for projects with greater yield fluctuations, but give higher economic commitments with tighter credit, and vice versa. The government can reduce its economic commitments by shifting income distribution rights or increasing capital investment. The influence rules of credit environment and type difference on economic commitment decision-making are revealed, which expands the research on government economic commitment decision-making. It is helpful for clarifying the decision-making cost and consequences of the government economic commitment, controlling project financial risks, and optimizing the economic commitment decision-making of Chinese PPP projects