Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration |
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Authors: | Anna Klabunde Sabine Zinn Frans Willekens Matthias Leuchter |
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Institution: | 1. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research;2. Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories;3. University of Groningen and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) |
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Abstract: | We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates. |
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Keywords: | international migration life course modelling Theory of Planned Behaviour multistate modelling microsimulation agent-based modelling |
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