REFERENDUM DYNAMICS AND THE IRISH DIVORCE AMENDMENT

Referendums are typically interpreted in terms unique to a particulartime and place; the 1986 Irish divorce referendum has been noexception. Here this vote is examined in light of referendumsin the United States and elsewhere in an attempt to identifymore pervasive patterns. It is concluded that there is a referendumdynamic capable of anticipating the diverse fluoridation votesof the 1950s, the ERA campaigns of the 1970s, and the Irishdivorce vote of 1986, all of which displayed large voter shiftsfrom an initial majority in favor to an eventual majority against.The dynamic process involved appears to be a pattern of eliteretreat brought about by community conflict, rather than theresult of confusion, ignorance, a herd instinct, or alienationin the electorate.