中国公路交通与经济发展关系的实证研究

基于时间序列数据,利用协整理论和Granger因果检验方法对公路交通与经济发展的关系进行实证研究。研究表明:1978~1991年两者之间不存在长期均衡发展和Granger因果关系;而1992~2005年中国公路交通与经济发展存在协整关系和双向因果关系。通过建立协整回归方程对未来中国公路交通发展进行数量方面的预测,并将预测结果与“十一五”交通部公路发展规划比较,从而提出合理规划公路交通发展的建议:“十一五”公路发展规划接近中国经济发展水平,但在一定程度上还不能满足经济发展水平的要求;将公路交通发展历程分为两个阶段的研究方法,揭示了不同阶段的内在逻辑关系和数量关系。结论认为:公路交通与经济发展应保持长期均衡并适度超前的发展战略,中国公路交通规划应超前2~3年为宜。

Relationship between highway transportation and economic development in China

Based on the time series data,the paper studies the relationship between the highway transportation and the economic development through Co-integration theory and Granger causality test method.Put into different periods,it indicates that there was no such relationship from 1978 to 1991 while from 1992 to 2005 there was harmonious and two-way causality relationship.By establishing the Co-integration regression equation to predict the future of highway transportation in terms of quantity and through comparing it with the development plan of the Ministry of Communications for the "Eleventh Five-year" plan,the paper proposes that: 1) the highway development plan for the "Eleventh Five-year" plan is close to the economic development of China,but it is unable to satisfy the demand of the economic development;2) the method of dividing the course of highway development into two periods reveals the internal logic and quantitative relation in different stages.The conclusion is that there should be a long-term balance between highway transportation and economic development with the strategy of the former moderately exceeding the latter,and in China the exceeding period should be 2-3 years.