蜈蚣博弈悖论引发的思考

对蜈蚣博弈悖论引发的逆推归纳法困惑进行分析,逆推归纳法悖论的产生其实是源于逆推归纳法的适用范围问题,即逆推归纳法只是在一定的条件下和一定的范围内有效。逆推归纳法适用于完全且完美信息的有限博弈;其有效性与博弈的利益密切相关;博弈的结构与逆推归纳法的方法论特点一致时,逆推归纳法成立;在现实的博弈中,逆推归纳法是否有效受多种非理性因素的影响。

On Paradox from Centipede Game

This thesis discusses the paradox from centipede game. The author also analyses the conditions of applying the backward induction. The backward induction is an important reasoning method in game logic. But sometimes the theoretical prediction on players in game, which comes out of backward induction reasoning, is unexpectedly depressed. It brings us contradiction between theoretical reasoning and practical behavior in real situation.