住房供给调控中异质环境的作用效果研究

本文在住宅存量调整模型基础上,将政策实施环境与政策工具引入住宅供给分析框架,建立了基于异质环境的商品住宅供给调控动态模型,并在设置预期和城市两类微环境因子的基础上,对中国35个大中城市1999-2010年间住房供给调控政策的实施效果进行了实证分析。结果表明:异质预期环境下同一政策工具对商品住宅供给的作用效果存在明显差异;预期不仅对商品住宅供给产生了直接影响,而且还会弱化货币和土地等政策工具的实施效果;异质城市环境下同一政策工具对商品住宅供给的作用效果也存在明显差异。全文从异质环境的视角出发,对现实中住房调控的低效现象给出了新的解释和解决手段。

Heterogeneous Environments' Influence on Housing Supply Regulation

On the basis of housing stock adjustment model, policy implementation environments and policy instruments are introduced into analytical framework for housing supply in this paper, and the dynamic model of commercial housing supply regulation is estiblished based on heterogeneous environments.And two types of micro-environmental factors--expectation and city are set, and empirical analysis of the macro-policies' performance on commercial housing supply from 1999 to 2010 in 35 cities of China are carried out. The results show that: in heterogeneous expectation environment, the same policy instrument has different effects on commercial housing supply; the presence of expectation not only has direct influence on housing supply, but also weakens the implementation effects of monetary policy and land policy; in the heterogeneous city environment, there are also significant differences in the same policy instrument's effects on commercial housing supply. From the perspective of heterogeneous environments, new interpretation and solution to inefficiency of housing regulation in reality are given.