西部地区农民养老模式选择意愿的影响因素分析——基于有序Probit模型和结构方程模型的实证研究

基于微观调查数据,利用有序Probit模型和结构方程模型对影响中国西部地区农民养老模式选择意愿的因素进行了系统分析。研究发现：西部地区农民倾向于选择依靠家庭和自我相结合的养老模式。潜变量个人禀赋、家庭特征、认知程度对农民养老模式选择意愿的影响显著,而社区特征的影响不显著;可观测变量年龄、健康状况、文化程度、从事职业、家庭男孩数、家庭生活水平、是否听说过新农保、是否听说过商业养老保险等对农民养老模式选择意愿的影响显著,而性别、婚姻状况、个人年收入、家庭人口数、家庭女孩数、家庭劳动力数、家庭承包土地数、离最近公路距离、离最近县城距离等变量对农民养老模式选择意愿并无显著影响。

An Empirical Study on the Factors Which Influence the Will of the Aged Farmers in the West Region by Using the Ordered Probit Model

According to the data of investigation,this article systematically analyses the factors which influence the aged farmers＇ will by using the Ordered Probit model.The author finds that farmers in west region like to select the combination model of family and self to satisfy their Old-age desire.In terms of latent variables,the personal endowments,the family characteristics and the cognitive complexity impact the old-age will significantly,but the Community characteristics impact is not significant;in terms of observed variables,the farmers＇ age,health,level of education,occupation,number of family boy in a family,family standard of living,whether ever heard of the new social pension insurance or commercial pension insurance,etc.influence the aged farmer＇s will significantly.However,gender,marital status,personal annual income,household size,number of in a family,number of labors in a family,number of household contract land,distance from the nearest road and the nearest town have little influence on the aged farmers will.