珠江—西江经济带人口分布时空演化规律及影响因素分析

基于人口分布指数和空间自相关分析方法,研究2008-2017年珠江—西江经济带包括广东及广西共11市的人口分布时空演化特征以及影响因素。结果表明:珠江—西江经济带人口密度呈现"东高西低"的分布格局,且地区差异显著;低、中、高值地区人口密度的年均增长量上升,人口分布地区差异扩大;人口分布具有不断集中的趋势,且不均衡状态加剧;Moran’s I值不断增大,珠江—西江经济带地区人口密度不断集聚,分布的空间相关性也不断强化。在分析影响因素时,引入空间计量模型,经判别检验后,确立SLM为最优模型,SLM的计量分析结果显示:人均GDP、职工平均工资、产业结构、公共服务水平都对经济带人口分布产生正向影响。因此,要想促进珠江—西江经济带人口合理分布,可以通过加快产业结构调整,推进经济带内一体化发展,提高公共服务水平和加大基础设施建设来实现。

Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Population Distribution and Its Influencing Factors in the Pearl River-Xijiang river Economic Belt

Based on the population distribution index and spatial autocorrelation analysis method,this paper studies the characteristics and influencing factors of spatial and temporal population distribution covering 11 cities in the Pearl River-Xijiang river economic belt in 2008-2017.The results show that the population density of the Pearl River-Xijiang river economic belt is higher in the East and lower in the West with significant regional differences.The average annual growth of population density is keep increasing in whole belt including the low,middle and high value areas,and the regional difference of population distribution expanded.The population distribution shows a trend of continuous concentration,and the imbalance is aggravating.The increasing Moran's I value also support the conclusion that the population of Pearl River-Xijiang river economic belt tends to increasingly concentrate and the correlation of spatial distribution is increasingly strengthened.Further studying the influencing factors of population distribution,spatial econometric models are introduced and discriminant tested to establish SLM as the optimal model.The results of SLM show that GDP per capita,average wage of employees,industrial structure and public services all have positive impact on the population distribution of the economic belt.The finding imply that the reasonable distribution of population in the Pearl River Xijiang economic belt may need effective actions to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure,promote the integrated development within the economic belt,improve the level of public services and increase infrastructure construction.