传统投资项目评价方法基于CAPM与Black—Scholes模型的优化

新经济中存在大量的不确定性。现代投资理论认为,不确定性在产生风险的同时,也会带来更多的机会。在确定经济环境下应用的传统投资项目评价方法越来越不适应新的经济环境。文章针对传统投资项目评价方法的不足,应用CAPM来调整折现率以及如何评价机会价值和风险价值而展开,并提出了修正后的投资项目评价模型。

The Optimization of the Traditional DCF Method: Based on the CAPM and the Black-Scholes Model

Large amount of uncertainties exists in new economy.Modern investment theory regards that the uncertainties bring many opportunities when they generate risk.But the traditional DCF method applied to the certain economic environment only considers the disadvantage of risk,what's more,the way to determine discount rate is very simple and the opportunity value is not included.Therefore,the traditional DCF method hasn't adapted itself to the new economic environment.This paper focuses on the analysis of defects of the traditional DCF method and discussing how to use the CAPM to regulate the discount rate and the quantification of the value of opportunity and risk.Finally a modified DCF method is put forward.