中国相对价格变化的通货膨胀效应——基于非对称性视角的实证分析

构建中国通货膨胀对相对价格变化影响的理论模型,并估算全国各地区的相对价格变化(RPV)、通货膨胀率(INF)和非预期通货膨胀率(UINF)指标,运用面板数据实证检验了中国通货膨胀对RPV影响的非对称性.实证检验结果表明:各参数符号均符合理论模型的假设,并且证明中国通货膨胀对RPV的影响确实存在非对称性,这种非对称性在物价水平上升时期要大于物价水平下降时期.考虑结构变化得出,在不同的通货膨胀时期这种非对称性是不同的,在高通货膨胀时期和低通货膨胀时期,通货膨胀对RPV的影响在物价水平上升时期要大于物价水平下降时期,同时这种非对称性在低通货膨胀时期要大于高通货膨胀时期;在通货紧缩时期这种非对称性则出现逆转,其影响在物价水平下降时期要大于物价水平上升时期但并不显著.另外,实证检验结果还证明,经济增长可以降低RPV,说明保持经济增长对于稳定物价水平来说是非常必要的.因此,国家相关部门在治理通货膨胀时应考虑不同通货膨胀时期中通货膨胀对RPV影响的非对称性,进而达到稳定物价水平的宏观调控效果.

The Asymmetry Analyses of Inflation's Impact on RPV in China

This paper first built a theoretical model of inflation’s impact on Relative Price Variability(RPV), and calculated the indexes of RPV,inflation(INF) and unexpected inflation(UINF)across the country, then used panel data to do the empirical analyses and test the asymmetry of inflation’s impact on RPV in China. The research shows that the symbols of parameters are in line with the hypotheses of theoretical model, and this asymmetry does exist, which means that inflation's impact on RPV is bigger in price level rise period than price level fall period obviously. Considering the structural changes, the paper shows that this asymmetry is different in different inflation periods, such as the inflation’s impact on RPV is bigger in the price level’s rising period than price level’s declining period in the high inflation period and low inflation period, and the asymmetry is bigger in low inflation period than high inflation period. However, this asymmetry is reversed in deflation period, which means that the impact of inflation on RPV is bigger in price level’s declining period than price level’s rising period in a not so obvious manner. In addition,the empirical result also shows that economic growth can reduce RPV. It is necessary to stabilize price level to keep economic growth. Therefore,relevant national authorities should consider the asymmetry effects of inflation on RPV in different inflation periods for the Macro-control effect of stabilizing price level in dealing with inflation.